Frequently asked questions

What is Yield3?

Yield3 is a research site for Polymarket markets. Every market we publish gets a page that carries the market's settlement rules in full, the order book that is visible right now, recent trading activity, and the other outcomes that belong to the same event. It is a place to read a market carefully — what exactly has to happen for it to pay out, and what it would cost to take a position at the size you have in mind — before you decide anything.

Everything on a page describes public data that already exists. Nothing on it is a forecast.

Are you Polymarket?

No. We are not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Polymarket. We read Polymarket's public data and publish our own reading of it. Trading happens on Polymarket, not here.

Can I trade here?

No. This site has no order entry, no wallet connection and no link to any Polymarket account. We cannot see your balance, your positions or your trading history, and we cannot place, route, change or cancel an order. Anything that asks you to connect a wallet or approve a transaction is not us.

Do you tell me what to buy?

No, and this is a deliberate design choice rather than a disclaimer. We do not publish price forecasts, direction calls, or a single number that summarises whether a market is a good idea. Every figure on a page is a measurement of something that has already happened — a rule that has already been written, an order that is already resting on the book, a trade that has already printed — and it is labelled with what it measures and over what period.

Nothing here is investment, financial, legal or tax advice.

What does the site actually compute, then?

Three things, in plain terms:

• What you are betting on. The full settlement rules, the deadline, and the other outcomes in the same event, so you can check what fact triggers the payout before you form a view.
• What it would cost. The headline probability is a mid-price, not a fill. Given a size, we walk the order book that is visible at that moment and report the average price you would pay, the worst price you would touch, how much of the visible depth you would use, the fee where the market publishes one, and the price at which the position breaks even.
• What has been happening. Recent aggressive buying and selling, how wide the spread has been, and how the other outcomes in the event have moved.

Costs and returns are always expressed against the money you would actually put up. On Polymarket you take the other side of a position by buying the opposite outcome, so the stake on a 0.82-priced YES is 82 cents and the stake on the matching NO is 18 cents — the same one-cent move is a very different return on those two. There is more on this in how we measure things.

What are your sources?

All of them are public:

• Polymarket's public market data — the question, the written settlement rules, the event a market belongs to, its category, and its traded volume and liquidity.
• Polymarket's public order-book feed — resting bids and offers, and the trades that print against them, for the markets we record (see the next answer).
• The Polygon blockchain — the settled outcome, read from the public record once a market resolves.
• Public news feeds — for the news timeline in the Pro view.

We buy no private data, we hold nothing from anyone's Polymarket account, and we have no non-public relationship with the venue.

Is every market's order book recorded?

No, and each panel says so rather than quietly showing you a thin sample as if it were a full one. Order books and the trade tape are recorded for a tracked subset of markets. On a market outside that subset you still get the full settlement rules, the event, and the top of the book as the venue reports it — the panels that need recorded history will say they have no coverage for that market instead of filling in.

How often does it update?

Two different clocks, and it matters which one you are asking about:

• Prices, order book, spread and recent trades are fetched when you open the page. They are not baked into the page, and they are not cached across visitors. Reload to get a newer reading.
• The written parts of a page — the question, the settlement rules, the event grouping, the category — are rebuilt on a schedule, and the page you are reading may itself be a cached copy of an earlier rebuild. A change made on Polymarket normally shows up here within an hour or two.
• The settled outcome appears once it is recorded on-chain.

Why are your numbers slightly different from Polymarket's?

Because they are read at a different instant, not because we adjust anything. We read the same public feeds; your page was fetched when you opened it, and the venue's own page keeps ticking after that. Where we and the venue disagree about the venue's own order book, the venue is right.

We also show a different number by default in one place: Polymarket's headline is a mid-price, and the price you can actually transact at is the best bid or the best offer, which is usually a little worse. That gap is the spread, and it is shown rather than smoothed away.

Why does market X have no page here?

A market gets a page only if it has settlement rules of its own that are worth reading, and only if it has traded enough for those rules to matter to anyone. Markets whose description is empty get no page at all — with no rules text there is nothing on the page that is not already in the title. Markets with almost no trading activity are held to the same standard: a live market needs some recent activity or resting liquidity, and a settled market is judged on what it traded over its whole life rather than on its last quiet day.

I can find a page on this site, but not in Google. Why?

Having a page and being offered to a search engine are two different decisions, and we make the second one conservatively. Some pages carry an instruction asking search engines not to index them. They are still fully browsable and searchable here; they are simply not put forward as search results. Two groups account for nearly all of it:

• Sports fixtures. A finished or scheduled fixture's settlement text is templated — the same sentence with different team names and a different date. It says nothing the title does not, so there is no reason for it to compete for a search result.
• Outcomes that share one rulebook. In an event where many outcomes are governed by a single block of settlement text, only the largest few keep their own entry in search results; the rest point at the event page, which is where the shared rules actually belong.

A page I had bookmarked now looks thinner than before.

Markets drop below the activity level that earns a full page, and pages are rebuilt when that happens. The settlement rules and the identity of the market stay; the parts that depend on recorded order-book history may stop being available. Nothing is deleted retroactively — a settled market keeps its page, because "how did this resolve" is a question people ask long after the market closes.

What can I read without paying?

Everything this site publishes as a page: the settlement rules in full, the deadline and the resolution source, the visible order book with spread and depth, what a given size would cost to fill, recent aggressive buying and selling, the other outcomes in the same event, and how tradable the market has been. No account is needed and none is offered on this site.

What does Pro add?

Pro adds depth on who is trading and what has just been published: a participant table for markets where the trade tape has been reconstructed, how concentrated the activity is among a few addresses, the live trade tape, and a news timeline placed against the price. Those panels are built for the browser extension, where Pro is used today.

Two honest caveats. First, these panels depend on data we only hold for part of the market universe, and they say when they hold nothing for a market rather than showing an empty shell. Second — see the next answer — signing in is not available on this website yet.

Can I sign in here?

Not yet. This website has no sign-in today, so every visitor sees the free view and the Pro panels appear locked to everyone, including subscribers. Pro is used in the PolySmarter browser extension, which signs in on its own site. Bringing accounts to this site is planned, and this answer will change when it happens.

What does Pro cost?

US$39 per month, or US$390 per year — 17% less than paying monthly. Prices are in US dollars and are shown again before you commit. See pricing.

How do I cancel?

From your account on the subscription site, which opens Stripe's billing portal. Cancelling stops the next renewal and leaves Pro active until the end of the period you have already paid for. We do not pro-rate the unused part of a period.

Can I get a refund?

If you are a consumer in the UK or EEA you may have a statutory right to cancel within 14 days of purchase, subject to the usual limits where digital content has already been supplied with your consent. Outside that, we consider refund requests individually and in good faith — write to us through support with your account email and what went wrong. Section 6 of the terms sets this out in full, and nothing there limits rights you have under consumer law that cannot be limited.

Payment is handled entirely by Stripe. We never receive your card details.

Do I need an account to read this site?

No. Every page here is readable without signing in, and there is no sign-in on this site today.

What do you collect about me?

The privacy policy is the full answer. The short version for this site: reading a page needs no account, involves no wallet, and gives us nothing about your Polymarket activity, because we have no way to see it.

Something on a page is wrong.

Please tell us through support, with a link to the page and what you expected to see instead. Settlement rules are copied from the venue verbatim; if the rules themselves are unclear or have changed, that is a question for Polymarket, but we would still like to know.

Do you have an API?

Not as a product. The endpoints this site reads are built for this site, are not documented, and change without notice. If you are doing research and need data, ask through support and say what you are trying to do.

Is the site available in other languages?

English only for now. Market settlement rules are written in English at the source, and a translated copy of a legal-style clause would be a worse thing to trade against than the original.